The funding plan as the July 2026 table prints it
Five categories total $6,985 million in year-of-expenditure dollars. Committed or budgeted money outside the federal grant is $1,304 million. The federal Capital Investment Grant is $3,384 million. Planned state funding is $1,303 million. Other planned or potential sources are $265 million. Past investment in the train box is $729 million.
A sixth line carries $587 million as a funding gap to be planned. The five categories plus the gap equal the July 2025 project cost of $7,572 million.
The federal share
The Capital Investment Grant is 44.7 percent of the $7,572 million estimate and the largest single source in the plan. The FTA runs the programme in three phases, and TJPA entered engineering in 2024. The target date for executing the Full Funding Grant Agreement is July 2027, unchanged from the previous report.
Two estimates, $683 million apart
The project budget is $8.255 billion, set from the 2023 cost estimate submitted at entry into engineering. The updated estimate is approximately $7.572 billion after scope modifications, updated right-of-way valuations and a revised risk-adjusted contingency. The $683 million difference sits in unallocated contingency and holds the total budget at $8.255 billion.
The FTA completed its environmental re-evaluation review on 26 August 2026 and approved the scope changes behind the update. The formal Baseline Cost Estimate arrives at FFGA execution.
State money and the two decisions under it
Planned state funding splits into $750 million from the Cap-and-Invest Transit and Intercity Rail Capital Program and $553 million as a High-Speed Rail passthrough. TJPA applied for the $750 million in Cycle 8 on 18 May 2026. Award announcements expected in September 2026 have moved to October 2026.
The report states that recent updates to the California High-Speed Rail Authority's business plan require TJPA to recommence conversations with that authority on its funding commitment.
The $265 million of other planned or potential sources holds $155 million of Central South of Market community facilities district funds and $110 million of future net tax increment bonds and pay-as-you-go.
AB 2308 is signed
AB 2308 extends the net tax increment generated by Transbay development of state-transferred parcels by 25 years from the scheduled sunset in 2050. The legislature approved it on 26 August 2026 and the Governor signed it on 30 September 2026. The bill sets how long the $110 million of tax increment runs past 2050. The report publishes no value for the extension.
The risk register names funding first
The top risk in the register is a delay in the acquisition of capital funding, scored 15 or higher. The report states that delays in securing local match may delay execution of the grant agreement planned for July 2027. Unacceptable risks fall from 20 to 4 once planned mitigations land, and 56 percent of the register stays unacceptable or undesirable after mitigation.
What closes before a shovel
The sequence is fixed. Close the $587 million gap. Demonstrate the full local share. Execute the grant agreement. Award the civil and tunnel contract and issue notice to proceed. Take possession of the tranche one parcels. Begin cut-and-cover under Townsend and Second Streets.
Design status sets the distance to that sequence. Utility relocation, yard preparation and demolition stand at 60 percent. Civil and tunnel, track and systems, and station fit-out stand at 30 percent. Proposals for the civil and tunnel contract are due 9 October 2026. The service target is 17 November 2036, and construction has not started.