A cost estimate at 20 percent design
The Port of San Francisco and the US Army Corps of Engineers put the Recommended Plan at $17.8 billion in 2026 dollars. The figure carries a conditional cost certification and sits at 20 percent design maturity. Both appear in the Port Commission deck of 11 August 2026.
The Army Corps requires designs for at least 35 percent of the plan before it takes the project up and requests funding from Congress. KQED reported that requirement on 11 August 2026. The plan sits 15 points short.
Where the cost moved
The 2024 Draft Plan cost $13.5 billion in 2024 dollars. Restated in 2026 dollars it costs $14.7 billion: $14.6 billion for design and construction and $100 million for real estate.
The 2026 Recommended Plan costs $17.8 billion: $14.1 billion for design and construction and $3.7 billion for real estate.
Design and construction fell about $500 million. Real estate rose $3.6 billion. Land and relocation carry roughly 21 percent of the programme total.
A federal share of up to 65 percent
The federal government may pay up to 65 percent of construction cost. That share waits on a Congressional decision. Nothing on this record authorises it.
Port staff worked water resources legislation with the USACE Coastal Cities Coalition and engaged Senators Padilla and Schiff and Speaker Emerita Pelosi. Padilla requested Energy and Water design funding for the Downtown Coastal Resilience Project. The Senate bill carries the 35 percent design requirement and a Section 221 consultation. The House bill carries hazardous waste liability.
A sponsor cannot count that federal share as committed capital.
The design bill arrives before the construction bill
The plan concentrates design spend on three areas. Program director Brad Benson named them to KQED: Fisherman's Wharf, the Embarcadero between Harrison and Townsend streets, and downtown between Broadway and Harrison streets.
An owner inside those boundaries absorbs design, permitting and works ahead of an owner outside them.
Local bond money carries the advisory contract
The advisory contract is the committed capital on the record. The Port Commission adopted Resolution 25-85 on 9 December 2025. The Board of Supervisors enacted Resolution 049-26 on 13 February 2026. The term runs from 2 March 2026 to 1 March 2031, with a not-to-exceed amount of $40,000,000 and a single five-year option.
Proposition A general obligation bond proceeds and the Port Harbor Fund carry the money. The December 2025 memo tables $10.6 million of bond proceeds and $0.9 million of Harbor Fund money through mid-2027. That is $11.5 million against the $40 million ceiling.
Jacobs brings 39 subcontractors and committed 26.6 percent of the contract to local business enterprises. CH2M HILL held the advisory function from 2017 on a $36,349,740 contract.
Seven early projects authorised ahead of federal money
The December 2025 memo lists up to seven Early Projects for predesign through conceptual engineering: Fisherman's Wharf Forward, the Wharf J9 Replacement Project, the Pier 9 and Pier 15 Seawall Earthquake Safety Projects, the Downtown Coastal Resilience Project, the South Beach Resilience Project and the Pier 50 Earthquake Improvement Project.
The Port Commission authorised the design contracts through Resolutions 25-35, 25-36 and 25-37 at the 8 July 2025 meeting. The two named resilience projects start concept design and CEQA alongside Step 1 of federal programme development.
The standard each reach buys
The plan divides 7.5 miles into four reaches with four standards. Fisherman's Wharf runs from Aquatic Park to Telegraph Hill, where higher ground allows floodproofing and floodwalls up to 3 feet above grade. The Embarcadero runs from Telegraph Hill to the Bay Bridge at 3.5 feet of sea level rise. South Beach and Mission Bay run from the Bay Bridge to Potrero Point at 1.5 feet. Islais Creek and Bayview run from Potrero Point to Heron's Head Park at 1.5 feet.
First Actions defend 1.5 to 3.5 feet. A Monitoring and Adaptation Plan triggers Subsequent Actions that defend 3.5 to 7 feet. KQED reports the plan raises the Ferry Building by 7 feet. The Embarcadero carries the highest first standard because the density of city-serving and regional infrastructure limits incremental phasing there.
What the study leaves unpriced
Section 2.6 names four items the plan does not decide: detailed designs for flood defences, designs for waterfront streets and open spaces, the timing and sequencing of construction, and the funding plan.
The funding plan is the fourth item. The study prices the damage and recommends the defence. It publishes no schedule for paying for three decades of work.
The port puts damages at $23 billion over the next century if the project does not proceed. KQED reported that figure on 11 August 2026. The highlights say a detailed benefit-cost analysis informed the plan and publish no ratio.
What it means for a waterfront hotel asset
Three facts set the exposure: the reach standard on the frontage, the Early Project that covers the address, and the local capital already committed. The plan publishes all three.
A property inside the three design areas carries design, permitting and construction cost it can date. A property outside them waits for the subsequent phases with no published start.
No page publishes an assessment schedule for either case. Ask the sponsor for the reach assignment and the subreach assignment in writing, the elevation standard on the frontage in feet, the Early Project covering the address, and the Monitoring and Adaptation Plan triggers. Price the defence as a contingent claim on the asset.